Methodology

The free rail uses the European Central Bank’s daily reference rates via the Frankfurter API. These are official once-a-day reference values — published around 16:00 CET on ECB working days — not live dealing quotes.

The Pro rail adds keyed coverage from ExchangeRate-API: 160 currencies and every pair. Whichever rail is active, the screen always tells you which provider the number came from and how fresh it is.

Conversions are computed from the active rail’s rates for your exact pair. What you see is the mid-market reference value — the midpoint between buy and sell — which is the honest benchmark to compare any offer against.

Your bank or transfer service will apply its own margin and fees on top of the mid-market rate, so the amount you actually receive will differ. Use the reference value to judge how big that margin is.

US Treasury yields come from the FRED® API of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (daily) and US Treasury FiscalData. Other countries use monthly OECD long-term series. This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Yields matter to currencies because rate differentials drive capital flows: when one country’s 10-year yield rises against another’s, holding that currency pays more, which tends to support it. The yields dashboard shows those spreads directly.

Each outlook starts from a deterministic signal — no AI involved. Recent momentum (the pair’s ~30-day move in its daily rate history) always feeds it; where both currencies have a 10-year government-bond rail, the yield spread (carry) is added. The result is a direction and a confidence that deliberately sits close to 50% and never goes far above it — that is what the measured accuracy supports: over 30 days a directional signal is close to a coin flip, and only modestly better over 90. Same inputs, same signal — every time.

Outlooks are computed on our servers for a bounded universe with a simple rule: every combination of the 30 major currencies, plus every other supported currency against the US dollar or the euro. Most pairs refresh on each publication day, and some can take longer to come through. A Pro pass is never shown sample data — a covered pair with no current analysis says exactly that, and a pair outside the universe says there isn’t enough data. Free accounts see a clearly badged sample preview.

The short outlook text is written by an AI model (Anthropic Claude) from the computed facts only — the pair, its rate history, the yield spread and the signal. The model explains those facts; it is not asked to predict, and no personal data is involved.

The direction, strength and confidence you see on screen always come from the computed signal itself, never from the text. The prose is commentary; the numbers are the source of truth.

Every screen tells you what you are looking at: how fresh the number is and which provider produced it. If you are offline, the app shows the last rates it stored on your device — labeled as cached, never passed off as live.

Sample data — bundled demonstration content, like the outlook preview free accounts see — is always badged as sample. You are never shown sample data unlabeled.